BTC Price Prediction: Navigating Volatility with $115,900 Resistance in Focus

#BTC

• Bitcoin trading below 20-day MA at $115,912 but above key support at $103,697
• MACD remains bullish at 4,346 despite recent market volatility
• Mixed fundamentals with ETF outflows countered by regulatory progress and institutional interest

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis Shows Bitcoin Testing Key Support Levels

Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,871, below its 20-day moving average of $115,912, indicating short-term bearish pressure. The MACD reading of 4,346 shows bullish momentum despite recent declines, while the Bollinger Bands position suggests BTC is testing the lower band at $103,697 as potential support.

According to BTCC financial analyst John, 'The technical setup reveals Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase. While trading below the moving average suggests near-term weakness, the MACD remains positive and the lower Bollinger Band could provide solid support. A bounce from current levels could target the middle band around $115,900.'

Mixed Market Sentiment Amid Institutional Outflows and Regulatory Developments

Recent market developments present a complex picture for Bitcoin. Significant outflows from bitcoin ETFs totaling $1.2 billion and weakening Coinbase premium indicate selling pressure, while Florida's proposed bill to allocate state funds to crypto ETFs and political endorsements suggest growing institutional acceptance.

BTCC financial analyst John notes, 'The ETF outflows and retail losses create headwinds, but the fundamental story remains intact. Regulatory progress in Florida and political support demonstrate cryptocurrency's continued maturation. The market is experiencing typical volatility during adoption phases.'

Factors Influencing BTC's Price

Florida Proposes Groundbreaking Bill to Allocate State Funds to Bitcoin and Crypto ETFs

Florida has reintroduced a revised digital asset bill, HB 183, that could pave the way for institutional Bitcoin exposure at the state level. The legislation, proposed by Representative Webster Barnaby, allows up to 10% of Florida's public funds to be invested in Bitcoin, crypto ETFs, and blockchain-based instruments. If passed, the bill would authorize the State Board of Administration to allocate pension and trust funds into these assets starting July 2026.

The move marks a significant shift in institutional adoption, with Florida leading the charge among U.S. states. The revised bill includes clearer standards for custody, auditing, and fiduciary responsibility, addressing previous concerns that led to its rejection in June. Market observers view this as a potential catalyst for broader state-backed crypto adoption, often a precursor to bullish market cycles.

Bitcoin remains the focal point of the proposal, though the bill's language leaves room for exposure to other digital assets. The development comes as institutional interest in crypto reaches new highs, with spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining traction nationwide.

Retail Investors Lose $17B in Bitcoin Proxy Bets as Treasury Stocks Collapse

Retail investors seeking Bitcoin exposure through corporate treasury stocks have been left reeling after $17 billion evaporated in recent months. Firms like Metaplanet and Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—positioned themselves as safer alternatives to direct crypto ownership, only to plummet up to 50% during Bitcoin's correction. These equities had traded at 40-50% premiums to their underlying BTC holdings before the crash.

The strategy backfired spectacularly. Michael Saylor's Strategy pioneered the "digital asset treasury" model, with dozens of small-cap firms rebranding around Bitcoin holdings in late 2024. Investors flocked to these proxies to avoid wallet management or ETF complexities. But when Bitcoin's rally stalled, the leverage worked in reverse—losses concentrated among US, Japanese, and European traders who mistook convenience for stability.

NAV Collapse Reshapes Bitcoin Treasury Landscape, Creating New Investment Opportunities

The dramatic collapse in Net Asset Values (NAVs) across Bitcoin treasury firms has triggered a seismic shift in the digital asset market. Retail investors suffered billions in losses as inflated premiums evaporated, but 10x Research suggests this reset opens strategic opportunities for disciplined capital allocation.

Firms like Metaplanet exemplify the transition—converting paper valuations into tangible Bitcoin holdings. The research group characterizes the previous cycle as an era of "financial magic," where share issuance wildly outpaced underlying BTC reserves. Retail enthusiasm drove premiums as high as 7x NAV before the reckoning arrived.

This market catharsis may birth a new generation of efficient Bitcoin managers. The wealth transfer from speculative retail to institutional players reflects crypto's maturation—volatility remains, but the mechanisms for value capture grow more sophisticated.

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure as Coinbase Premium Weakens, RSI Signals Potential Support

Bitcoin dropped to $103,500 as the Coinbase Premium Index turned negative for the first time in weeks, reflecting waning U.S. investor demand. The decline coincided with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34—mirroring April's bottom zone—suggesting the sell-off may be nearing exhaustion.

Taker sell volume surged past $4 billion during the downturn, indicating short-term bearish momentum. Yet BTC continues to hold its 200-day exponential moving average, a critical support level maintained since early 2024. Market observers note the dichotomy between weakening spot demand and oversold technical conditions creates a tension reminiscent of previous reversal patterns.

Bitcoin ETFs See $1.2B Outflows Amid Price Drop, But Institutional Interest Grows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. faced significant outflows this week, shedding $1.22 billion as Bitcoin's price slumped to a four-month low. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust led the withdrawals with $268.6 million exiting, followed by Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and Grayscale's GBTC. The outflows coincided with Bitcoin's 6% October decline—a rare monthly loss for the asset.

Despite the ETF exodus, Charles Schwab reported surging institutional demand. Its clients now hold 20% of all U.S. crypto ETPs, while traffic to Schwab's crypto platform jumped 90% year-over-year. This divergence suggests short-term traders are retreating while long-term institutional capital continues building positions.

The market movement underscores crypto's maturation—volatility persists, but established financial players are increasingly treating digital assets as a permanent asset class rather than a speculative trade.

Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin Fortune Drops $20B Amid Market Crash

Bitcoin's sharp decline from $126,000 to $104,000 in just ten days has erased $20 billion from Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated net worth. The pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, believed to hold 1.1 million BTC, saw his holdings plummet alongside a broader market downturn triggered by US tariffs on Chinese goods.

Over $19.3 billion in crypto positions were liquidated during the sell-off, with one whale profiting $192 million from a timely short bet. Despite the losses, Satoshi's unmoved stash—valued at $130 billion at peak—still places him among the world's wealthiest individuals, surpassing Alice Walton and Michael Bloomberg.

CryptoAppsy Emerges as Essential Tool for Navigating Volatile Cryptocurrency Markets

The cryptocurrency market's relentless volatility demands real-time tracking solutions. CryptoAppsy delivers with a multi-language mobile platform offering live price updates, portfolio management, and personalized alerts—all without account requirements.

Aggregating data from global exchanges, the app refreshes every five seconds to capture arbitrage opportunities and sudden price movements. Its unified dashboard displays favorites, portfolios, and tailored news feeds, eliminating the need to juggle multiple platforms.

Unique multi-currency portfolio tracking and AI-driven price alerts position CryptoAppsy as a critical tool for investors navigating Bitcoin's $107,251 swings and altcoin fluctuations. User reviews highlight its 5.0/5 rating, praising the seamless integration of market data and discovery features for emerging coins.

Bitcoin’s Recent Losses Test Investor Patience

Bitcoin's three-day slump has wiped out $2.75 billion in realized losses, pushing short-term holders toward capitulation. The cryptocurrency's failure to hold above $113,000—the average acquisition cost for recent buyers—has triggered a wave of panic selling. Market analysts interpret this purge of weak hands as a necessary reset before any meaningful recovery.

The brief rally to $110,000 proved illusory, with leveraged long positions fueling a bull trap. Over $1 billion in liquidations followed as prices reversed. Trading depth continues to erode, raising the specter of a drop below $100,000. Such a breach could accelerate the current bearish momentum.

Bitcoin Reacts to Regional Bank Stress as Yields Drop and Stocks Plunge

Bitcoin fell to a four-month low of $103,850 amid renewed stress in regional banking stocks, signaling growing liquidity concerns in the broader economy. Strike CEO Jack Mallers framed the cryptocurrency's decline as an early reaction to potential financial instability, suggesting Bitcoin is 'smelling trouble' ahead of a possible Federal Reserve intervention.

Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance led the banking sector's downturn, with shares plunging on weak earnings and loan write-offs. The selloff revived memories of 2023's banking crisis, exposing lingering vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures and deposit-dependent balance sheets.

Bond markets echoed the anxiety as yields dropped and credit spreads widened. Mallers interprets these moves as precursors to renewed liquidity injections, with Bitcoin serving as a leading indicator of systemic strain. The cryptocurrency's volatility underscores its evolving role as both risk asset and macroeconomic hedge.

Bitcoin ETFs See $1.22 Billion Outflow Amid Market Downturn

U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds faced significant outflows last week, with investors withdrawing approximately $1.22 billion. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust led the redemptions at $268 million, followed by Fidelity and Grayscale's GBTC. The sell-off coincided with Bitcoin's price dropping from $115,000 to a four-month low of $104,000.

Despite the downturn, Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster revealed the firm's clients hold 20% of all crypto ETPs in the U.S., with crypto-related web traffic surging 90% year-over-year. Schwab plans to introduce spot crypto trading by 2026, signaling continued institutional interest.

Adam Draper Endorses Pro-Bitcoin Candidate Ian Calderon for California Governor

Venture capitalist Adam Draper has thrown his weight behind Ian Calderon's gubernatorial campaign, citing the candidate's progressive stance on Bitcoin and digital assets. Draper, a notable early investor in cryptocurrency ventures, publicly championed Calderon as "a forward-thinking leader ready to bring innovation to California"—a endorsement that resonated across tech circles.

Calderon, a former Democratic Majority Leader in the state assembly, breaks from party orthodoxy with his unabashed crypto advocacy. His platform proposes integrating Bitcoin into California's balance sheet—a move that would mark the first such institutional adoption by a U.S. state. "My generation pays bills on our phones," Calderon asserted in a campaign video. "We send money through Venmo. We save in Bitcoin."

The endorsement comes as California's political landscape shifts following controversies surrounding progressive candidate Katie Porter. Calderon's fusion of traditional Democratic policies with crypto-forward economics appears to be gaining traction among younger, tech-savvy voters.

How High Will BTC Price Go?

Based on current technical and fundamental analysis, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at the 20-day moving average of $115,900. A successful break above this level could target the upper Bollinger Band around $128,128. However, current market conditions suggest consolidation between $103,700 and $115,900 is likely in the near term.

BTCC financial analyst John emphasizes, 'While short-term pressure exists from ETF outflows, the technical structure remains constructive. Investors should watch for consolidation above $103,700 as a positive sign for eventual movement toward $115,900 resistance.'